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As systems improve we expect that the certainty of meeting objectives increases. what often happens is that systems become more complex over time which results in the emergence of new uncertainty

Given that uncertainty and risk are on everyone's minds we have decided to go ahead and offer this workshop principles and practices to improve the probability of project success in the presence of the COVID-19 uncertainties management principles and practices which are needed more than ever in the presence of the COVID-19 uncertainties It's time to defeat the dragon of uncertainty.

However, uncertainty is a ruthless master that disregards our hopes and wishes. The challenge with probabilities, especially when dealing with certain types of uncertainty, is their probability of getting heads or tails is 50% each, but for any particular flip, you can't predict with certainty However, as humans, we often conflate low probability with impossibility, but uncertainty doesn't operate Just as a fair coin can land on tails several times in a row despite the 50% probability, uncertainty

When it comes to contending with risk it is important to have an understanding of the nature of uncertainty uncertainty. Epistemic uncertainty has to do with the lack of knowledge. Aleatory uncertainty has to do with chance. Fragile systems breakdown easily in the presence of uncertainty.

How will we achieve these in the presence of continued uncertainty? The Bow-Tie is one of their super powers to contend with uncertainty. Tie Analysis - Template If you are interested in learning more please consider joining: The Proactive Certainty

Most threats are a manifestation of uncertainty which is the root cause of risk (ISO 31000). This uncertainty may come in different forms the most common of which are aleatory uncertainty, having to do with randomness, and epistemic uncertainty, having to do with lack of knowledge. Treat uncertainty by using margins such as reserves, contingencies, insurance, savings, etc. More articles on dragons, uncertainty and risk can be found here

However, this approach fails to consider that risks are deeply rooted in uncertainty. Types of Uncertainty: The Root Cause of All Risk Uncertainty is not something to be avoided or eliminated Epistemic Uncertainty: This stems from lack of knowledge or information. Managing Uncertainty: Irreducible and Reducible Risks Uncertainty can manifest in both positive and negative Thriving in the Presence of Uncertainty Risk management is not about eliminating uncertainty but about

We have lived and breathed uncertainty and have had to learn how to deal with its effects. Everything happens in the presence of uncertainty Uncertainty may be associated with the news we hear We will be more certain about some of these than others but there is always some uncertainty. However, there will always still be some uncertainty or doubt in our defences. We have had to learn how to deal with uncertainty that persists. 7.

is a bow-tie analysis (not exhaustive) which we will use to demonstrate the interactions between the uncertain Although, there is also uncertainty associated with opportunities as there is with threats. measures should also be used to improve the probability of realizing opportunities in the presence of uncertainty livelihood (effects) Here we use the bow-tie once again, but this time to improve the chances of an uncertain Risk measures can be put in place to prevent and mitigate the effects of uncertainty when they are negative

Saying what you will do and doing what you say is essential for organizations where staying between the lines is critical to mission success. If you want to lower your risks you need to foster a culture of integrity across all levels of your organization. For compliance, integrity is manifested when organizations take ownership of all their obligations and hold themselves accountable to them. In order to say what you will do requires that you first know what your obligations are. This means taking inventory of both regulatory requirements and voluntary commitments. Companies must then set appropriate organizational outcomes, targets, and goals commensurate with their level of commitment and operational risk. The way that companies say what they will do is by documenting their promises usually in the form of policy. To be effective policies must be put into practice. This is demonstrated when organizations operationalize their promises by embedding compliance objectives into programs, systems, processes, and procedures. You can call this compliance-by-design but it is really just ensuring that you do what you say. This is still not is not enough. Organizations must also hold themselves accountable. In fact, they must regulate themselves to provide assurance that they meet their obligations today and will meet them in future. Sustainability is the goal and integrity is the means. This involves continually evaluating performance and effectiveness of risk & compliance programs. Culture is a remnant of our actions. Organizations that continually say what they will do and do what they say will build and strengthen a culture of integrity.

When life is uncertain things are unclear, you don’t know what to expect, and you react to things when Life under uncertainty is a slow process. Compliance under uncertainty is also a slow process. So how does one make progress and move faster? approaches fail to address the root cause which is the lack of knowledge or what is called epistemic uncertainty If one wants to make progress it is important to contend with this uncertainty.

The causality model chosen to describe a system often leads to specific methods and tools to address uncertainty