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As systems improve we expect that the certainty of meeting objectives increases. what often happens is that systems become more complex over time which results in the emergence of new uncertainty

Given that uncertainty and risk are on everyone's minds we have decided to go ahead and offer this workshop principles and practices to improve the probability of project success in the presence of the COVID-19 uncertainties management principles and practices which are needed more than ever in the presence of the COVID-19 uncertainties It's time to defeat the dragon of uncertainty.

However, uncertainty is a ruthless master that disregards our hopes and wishes. The challenge with probabilities, especially when dealing with certain types of uncertainty, is their probability of getting heads or tails is 50% each, but for any particular flip, you can't predict with certainty However, as humans, we often conflate low probability with impossibility, but uncertainty doesn't operate Just as a fair coin can land on tails several times in a row despite the 50% probability, uncertainty

CYNEFIN Uncertainty Map Understanding Uncertainty: The CYNEFIN Framework The CYNEFIN framework (pronounced "kuh-NEV-in") offers a useful approach for categorizing different types of uncertainty, which helps This level of uncertainty raises practical questions about appropriate governance. Finding Success Amid Uncertainty The path forward isn't about eliminating uncertainty – that's likely How does your organization approach uncertainty in AI systems?

Who will fight the AI dragon of uncertainty? Who will be the heroes we need? Engineers who are willing to fight the AI Dragon of Uncertainty.

The Anatomy of Uncertainty Uncertainty isn't monolithic. Unlike aleatory uncertainty, epistemic uncertainty can potentially be reduced through research, data The Strategic Response to Uncertainty Once we recognize uncertainty as the source rather than just another Some uncertainties demand isolation. Some uncertainties require cushioning.

When it comes to contending with risk it is important to have an understanding of the nature of uncertainty uncertainty. Epistemic uncertainty has to do with the lack of knowledge. Aleatory uncertainty has to do with chance. Fragile systems breakdown easily in the presence of uncertainty.

How will we achieve these in the presence of continued uncertainty? The Bow-Tie is one of their super powers to contend with uncertainty. Analysis - Template If you are interested in learning more please consider joining: The Proactive Certainty

Most threats are a manifestation of uncertainty which is the root cause of risk (ISO 31000). This uncertainty may come in different forms the most common of which are aleatory uncertainty, having to do with randomness, and epistemic uncertainty, having to do with lack of knowledge. Treat uncertainty by using margins such as reserves, contingencies, insurance, savings, etc. More articles on dragons, uncertainty and risk can be found here

However, this approach fails to consider that risks are deeply rooted in uncertainty. Types of Uncertainty: The Root Cause of All Risk Uncertainty is not something to be avoided or eliminated Epistemic Uncertainty: This stems from lack of knowledge or information. Managing Uncertainty: Irreducible and Reducible Risks Uncertainty can manifest in both positive and negative Thriving in the Presence of Uncertainty Risk management is not about eliminating uncertainty but about

We have lived and breathed uncertainty and have had to learn how to deal with its effects. Everything happens in the presence of uncertainty Uncertainty may be associated with the news we hear We will be more certain about some of these than others but there is always some uncertainty. However, there will always still be some uncertainty or doubt in our defences. We have had to learn how to deal with uncertainty that persists. 7.

is a bow-tie analysis (not exhaustive) which we will use to demonstrate the interactions between the uncertain Although, there is also uncertainty associated with opportunities as there is with threats. measures should also be used to improve the probability of realizing opportunities in the presence of uncertainty livelihood (effects) Here we use the bow-tie once again, but this time to improve the chances of an uncertain Risk measures can be put in place to prevent and mitigate the effects of uncertainty when they are negative