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Know how to estimate uncertainty, identify risk, build a risk register, use a bow-tie analysis (or further elaboration for those who want to master risk management: Further development of the role that uncertainty This requires a more thorough discussion on the nature of uncertainty, cause/effect models, and working Worked examples or exercises would be beneficial with respect to developing risk plans, estimating uncertainties

We need to learn how to be more comfortable with uncertainty. But better than that, we need to learn how to: improve our probability of success in the presence of uncertainty

When life is uncertain we are blind to what may lie ahead. Compliance needs to contend first with epistemic uncertainty. Estimating the uncertainty of keeping all your promises (operational risk) associated with each obligation This is a form of aleatory uncertainty which is irreducible.

Decision makers today are often faced with making decisions that cross multiple dimensions and where uncertainty managed quality, safety, environmental or regulatory programs all of which involve contending with uncertainty "When faced with a set of uncertainties which cover a range of future states, some of which are unfavourable , then the uncertainties constitute a hazard. Hazards extend beyond the physical and include any condition where uncertainty may result in unfavorable

eliminated safety stock as “waste,” only to discover it was their crucial buffer against supply chain uncertainties How many times have compliance measures been reduced, inadvertently pushing operations to the edge of uncertainty

ISO 31000 changed this focus to " the effects of uncertainty on objectives ." consideration of probabilities, however, it does move the analysis more on how objectives will be effected by uncertainty The latter is what we call the, The Reactive Uncertainty Trap™. If you are an ethical, ambitious company and want to avoid, The Reactive Uncertainty Trap™ consider joining The Proactive Certainty Program™

In this capacity, MOC provides companies with a pulse and an earlier warning of the level of uncertainty This has a side effect of improving the certainty that planned changes create the desired outcomes while Is it being used to give you a risk pulse of the measure of uncertainty within your organization?

Uncertainty is the root cause of all risk - negative and positive. 4. Risk-adjusted plans improve the probability of success in the presence of uncertainty not in spite of

To contend with compliance, operational, and technical uncertainty, organizations often adopt management from standard (Conformance Controls) and feed-forward processes to prevent & mitigate the effects of uncertainty Instead, they all must work as-a-whole to provide effective layers of defence against the effects of uncertainty requires an operational rigour commensurate with what is at risk and what is needed to contend with uncertainty

Hazards are a manifestation of uncertainty – hazards create the opportunity for risk. Hazards are a manifestation of uncertainty – hazards create the opportunity for risk. reliability and resilience, which are used to contend with he hazardous internet (i.e. the dragon of uncertainty A comprehensive risk/certainty strategy and plan ensures that uncertainty in all its forms is effectively application of a body of knowledge used in safety domains to help contend with hazards – a primary source of uncertainty

Compliance is also concerned with this but calls in uncertainty. Variation and uncertainty are really two sides of the same coin. ISO 31000 defines risk as the uncertainty on objectives. aleatory uncertainty (having to do with chance and variability) which you treat with margins. Identify and evaluate uncertainties to meeting targeted goals and objectives.

Without management, uncertainty would reign, and organizational goals would be jeopardized. including the principles of scientific management or Taylorism, emphasizes the necessity of addressing uncertainty essence, management is the backbone that keeps an organization functioning effectively in the face of uncertainty This integration allows organizations to navigate uncertainty with agility, make informed decisions, While management addresses operational uncertainties and ensures the smooth functioning of an organization