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Risk Theory: Navigating Compliance in Uncertain Waters Risk Theory acknowledges that compliance is not It recognizes that businesses must be resilient and adaptable in the face of uncertainty and risk. risk measures to improve the probability that compliance outcomes will be achieved in the presence of uncertainty Applying them can help navigate uncertainty, build trust, streamline processes, and achieve compliance

of AI Governance: Governance must balance two types of terrains: order (predictability) and chaos (uncertainty safety and security protocols) and lampposts (e.g., transparency and fairness measures) to navigate uncertainty This requires more than reactive compliance; it demands proactive governance methods tailored to the uncertainties

Risk-based thinking is a mindset (perception, personas, perspective) to proactively improve the certainty This capability helps organizations succeed in the presence of uncertainty. thinking a habit rather than an afterthought, you'll create competitive advantage in an increasingly uncertain

Know how to estimate uncertainty, identify risk, build a risk register, use a bow-tie analysis (or further elaboration for those who want to master risk management: Further development of the role that uncertainty This requires a more thorough discussion on the nature of uncertainty, cause/effect models, and working Worked examples or exercises would be beneficial with respect to developing risk plans, estimating uncertainties

We need to learn how to be more comfortable with uncertainty. But better than that, we need to learn how to: improve our probability of success in the presence of uncertainty

conditions for non-conformance, defects, incidents, injuries, legal violations, misconduct, and business uncertainty New Name   To prioritize this objective, we have renamed our advanced program from: "The Proactive Certainty With greater alignment (a measure of integrity), uncertainty decreases, risk is reduced, waste eliminated

When life is uncertain we are blind to what may lie ahead. Compliance needs to contend first with epistemic uncertainty. Estimating the uncertainty of keeping all your promises (operational risk) associated with each obligation This is a form of aleatory uncertainty which is irreducible.

assessments into a unified view Update assurance continuously rather than waiting for audit cycles Express uncertainty not in pursuing the unattainable perfect score, but in making informed decisions under acknowledged uncertainty communicate transparently about confidence levels, and create a compliance function that values honesty about uncertainty

eliminated safety stock as “waste,” only to discover it was their crucial buffer against supply chain uncertainties How many times have compliance measures been reduced, inadvertently pushing operations to the edge of uncertainty

Estimate and handle uncertainty. ​What impediments or opportunities will we encounter? What is the nature of uncertainty (aleatory, epistemic, ontological, etc.)

Decision makers today are often faced with making decisions that cross multiple dimensions and where uncertainty managed quality, safety, environmental or regulatory programs all of which involve contending with uncertainty "When faced with a set of uncertainties which cover a range of future states, some of which are unfavourable , then the uncertainties constitute a hazard. Hazards extend beyond the physical and include any condition where uncertainty may result in unfavorable

ISO 31000 changed this focus to " the effects of uncertainty on objectives ." consideration of probabilities, however, it does move the analysis more on how objectives will be effected by uncertainty The latter is what we call the, The Reactive Uncertainty Trap™. If you are an ethical, ambitious company and want to avoid, The Reactive Uncertainty Trap™ consider joining The Proactive Certainty Program™